[ad_1]
El Niño years are followed by La Niña years about 40 percent of the time, and in about 10 percent of the years, an El Niño year is followed by another El Niño year.
Half the time, El Niño years are followed by neutral years, and the Bureau initially predicted continued warmer temperatures in the coming months.
But yesterday the BoM said there were some “early signs” that La Niña could form in the Pacific later in the year.
“When criteria for a La Niña observation have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed about 50 percent of the time,” the bureau said in its climate drivers update.
“There is about an equal chance of neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions in the same outlook period.”
Flooding destroys properties in NSW after record deluge
The bureau said sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December.
“It is important to emphasize that the early signs of La Niña are best suited for the tropical Pacific climate and that the long-term forecast of rainfall and temperature in Australia gives a better guide to the local climate.”
The La Niña weather event, which Australia experienced three times in a row before the recent El Niño, is associated with cooler temperatures and heavier rainfall.
[ad_2]
