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For the fifth time since the beginning of 2023. Keir Starmer woke up on Friday morning to by-election results that showed he would be prime minister until the end of the year.
The Labor leader called the result at Blackpool South, where the party’s candidate Chris Webb won by a “seismic” and “historic” margin of 26%. Polling experts point out that not even Tony Blair had secured such a sustained run of strong by-election results in the run-up to his landslide election victory in 1997.
Early results from both Blackpool and local elections across England are further proof that the national polls are right – Labor is well ahead Conservativesafter clawing his way back into the Leave voting areas he lost in 2019.
And although there are areas of concern Laborwhich is losing ground in areas with large Muslim populations and may fail to win the two mayoralties in Tees Valley and the West Midlands, the overall picture shows the party heading for a significant majority in Westminster.
John Curtis, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC on Friday morning that the results were “nothing short” of a disaster for the Tories. “They’re actually losing half the seats they’re trying to protect,” he added. “If this continues, they could lose 500 seats, which was the thing they needed to avoid.”
One of the most symbolic victories for Labor on Thursday night came in Hartlepool, where the party dramatically lost a by-election in 2021 – a result which almost got Starmer to quit as Labor leader.
Since then, Starmer has prioritized winning votes in “red wall” areas with a Leave vote, a strategy that allowed him to gain control of the local council on Friday morning. Sky News Analysis early results on Thursday night showed the Tories losing the majority of votes in areas that voted for Brexit.
This strategy means that Labour’s vote is now distributed more efficiently across the country, allowing it to win many more seats even with the same number of votes.
Chris Hopkins, director of political research at pollster Savanta, said: “The vote share for the Conservatives is not that bad relative to where they are in national opinion polls, but it has been expressed in above-average seat losses.”
Beneath the headlines, however, there are some signs of concern for Starmer and potential relief for Sunak.
Labor unexpectedly lost control of Oldham council after several of its councilors quit the party over its stance on Gaza. The party lost several council seats to independents, handing the council without overall control. He also failed to win Harlow, which Starmer had visited just the day before the election.
Pat McFadden, Labour’s campaign manager, admitted on Friday that the Oldham result was fueled by the party’s response to the Middle East crisis, where supporters say it has been slow to call for a ceasefire and overly cautious with criticism to Israel.
“I think it’s a factor in some places, I don’t think there’s any point in denying that,” McFadden told the BBC. “It’s really taking off and I can understand why people have strong feelings about it.”
Some in the party worry that events in Gaza will help split the progressive vote in the general election, causing potential losses in Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam and stopping the party from winning a number of target seats in the North West.
However, the right-wing vote appears to be more divided, with Reform almost overtaking the Tories in second place in Blackpool South. Hopkins said: “We have seen Reform UK pick up vote shares which, if transferred to the Conservatives, would have resulted in far fewer losses.”
Results on Friday morning showed the Conservatives heading for a loss of around 500 council seats – at the high end of pre-election estimates. Those losses are likely to increase pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has failed to regain Labor’s standing since taking over from Liz Truss in 2022.
Sunak is hoping for some relief at the weekend from results in the Tees Valley and West Midlands, where Conservative mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Street hope to hold on to power.
If the party loses both, Sunak is likely to face a leadership challenge as early as next week. If he wins both, it could take a few more months to oust him from Downing Street.
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