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Nigel Farage has unveiled a raft of populist promises, huge tax cuts and £140bn of spending commitments in a UK reform manifesto that economists say “doesn’t add up”.
The Conservative Party, struggling to counter the growing threat of reforms, accused Farage of being part of a “great entertainment machine” who was not someone who could run the country.
Labor strategists believe the reform, which ran its manifesto in the opposition heartland of South Wales, poses little risk because the party is so poorly organized and its vote is likely to be squeezed by the Tories on election day.
But Farage said he wanted to Reform in the United Kingdom to establish a “frontline” in parliament with a view to a full assault in five years’ time, suggesting he could be in No 10 after the next general election.
When he presented his party’s set of election promises, Farage said: “We’re not pretending we’re going to win this general election. These elections are for our party and for me the first important step on the way to 2029.
“Our ambition is to create a bridgehead in Parliament and become a genuine opposition to a Labor government.”
The UK’s reform plans involve spending an extra £141bn a year on tax cuts and other policy commitments, paid for by £156bn of savings in public spending and allowing for increased tax revenue from higher economic growth.
But the think tank Institute for Fiscal Studies said the party’s plans were based on “extremely optimistic assumptions” about growth and the sums “do not add up”, meaning the manifesto as a whole was “problematic”.
“While the Reform manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government can only implement parts of this package or will have to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean the losers are not named,” he adds.
The tax-cutting reform plans include raising the minimum income tax threshold to £20,000 a year, scrapping stamp duty, scrapping VAT on energy bills and scrapping inheritance tax on all estates under £2m.
Farage was asked about comparisons between Reform’s plans and former prime minister Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget. “I don’t want to work with the Office for Budget Responsibility. They are part of the problem, not part of the solution.” Truss chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng avoided publishing OBR analysis alongside minibudget, undermining credibility
The manifesto includes ending the net zero strategy, introducing life imprisonment for convicted drug dealers, a “freeze” on non-essential immigration “to protect our culture and identity” and a 20% tax cut for all private health care and insurance.
Reform last week overtook the Tories in a poll for the first time, with YouGov putting Farage’s party on 19%, ahead of the Tories on 18%, although other pollsters found a wider gap. Labor remains far ahead of the two with 37%.
Cabinet minister Michael Gove dismissed as “ridiculous” Farage’s claim that he could run for No 10 in 2019, telling Times Radio that the British public would prefer a more authoritative leader from the left or the right.
“It’s part of a great entertainment machine. He is not a man who can run this country. Reform is a giant ego trip, not a serious program of alternative change. Nigel Farage provides entertainment and entertainment. What he does not provide is authority and good governance.
“In this country, whoever we end up voting for, the British elect authoritative, sensible managers, whether they’re on the left or the right. What they don’t do is engage in the performative politics that Nigel has made such a successful financial career out of.
Giles Watling, the sitting Tory MP in Clactonwho won the seat previously held by Ukip in 2017, said it was important for his party not to dismiss the concerns of reform-minded voters.
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“We don’t have to take Nigel Farage particularly seriously, but we have to take the Reformation seriously and people who listen to Farage and are appealed to on an emotional level,” he said.
“When a country goes through difficult times, like the pandemic and the war, populist leaders emerge, people who hold rallies instead of talking to the people on the doorstep, and if they talk to the people on the doorstep, it’s a photo opportunity.”
Another Tory MP added: “We need to convince people that elections and a decent opposition are too important to waste their vote on protest or self-deception. Even if we have to do it in an apologetic tone.
Both Conservatives and Labor chose not to engage on the policy details of the Reform paper, with Keir Starmer trying to distance himself from questions about Farage’s plan to court Labor centrist voters.
Starmer said during a visit to Southampton that the election was “a straight choice between the Conservatives and Labour”, which may benefit his Tory opponents but may do little to distract from Farage.
Labor strategists said Reform UK was largely supported by the Tories, but they predicted Rishi Sunak would widen the gap with Farage’s party by election day.
“Reform can still be the dog that doesn’t bark. Some of the support could drop and they could end up with just 8% of the vote,” said one.
The Tories changed their election strategy to warning against Labor winning ‘super-majority’ even bigger than Labour’s landslide victory in 1997, with attack ads focusing on Keir Starmer and the Prime Minister under pressure from some Tories to “go for the door”.
Grant Shapps has become the first Tory minister to publicly admit the party is unlikely to win the election. “It is possible that we will win the elections. Am I to accept that this is not the most likely outcome? Yes, I accept that. I am a realist.”
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