Federal budget 2024 predictions, what to expect: What cost of living relief you can expect from this year’s federal budget including stage 3 tax cuts, HECS-HELP, Centrelink payments and more

Here’s what to expect in the federal budget—and how much you’re likely to gain from these plans.

Well-being increases

Australians on welfare will see some kind of increase in their payments, with pensioners one of three groups identified by the treasurer.

“There will be additional steps in this budget that are consistent with the recommendations that this important, respected and well-informed committee made to us,” Chalmers said.

Later in the week, on Friday, he was more specific.

”There will be extra help for people on pensions and payments and fixed incomes and there will be extra help for people who are struggling,” he said.

“And the details of that will be provided on Tuesday.”

What that extra help will be is a bit of a mystery. It could be a boost for jobseekers – the EIAC has called for it to be increased to 90 per cent of the age pension.

That would see a jump from the current $762.70 a fortnight for singles to $1,004.67 – an increase of $121 a week or about $17 a day.

As of March last year, 740,800 Australians were receiving Jobseeker’s Payment, while there were about 2.6 million people on the Age Pension.

But the EIAC made 21 other recommendations, including increasing rental benefits, investing in social and affordable housing for Indigenous people and overhauling the employment service system.

What it won’t be is a baby bonus. Although Chalmers said he would like to see an increase in the birth rate in Australia, he ruled out a Howard-style payment for new parents.

Student debt relief and accommodation support

Both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chalmers flagged relief for student living costs well ahead of the budget, and two policies have since been announced, with the more likely to appear on 14 May.

On 6 May, the Commonwealth Prac Payment was announced – a payment to support students of teaching, nursing, midwifery and social workers doing work placements for their degrees.

It will provide $319.50 per week to students during their clinical and professional placements in a bid to tackle ‘placement poverty’.

It will be means-tested, with the government expecting it to be paid to around 73,000 students, although it won’t come into effect for more than a year – it will first be available on July 1, 2025.

Previously, student debt increased in line with inflation each year on June 1.

This will now change, with debts instead being indexed to the lower of inflation or the wage price index.

The move was recommended by the Australian Universities Accord review and means students are not faced with debt that grows faster than their ability to earn debt-free.

It will also be backdated to June 1, 2023, so everyone who was hit by the record 7.1 percent increase thanks to high inflation will see their debt reduced with 3.2 percent indexation applied.

It will also reduce the projected increase for this year, which instead of reaching 4.7%, will now be 4%.

The government says the move will provide about $3 billion in relief to more than 3 million people who have student debt.

We also know there will be further changes to higher education included in the Budget, with Education Minister Jason Clare flagging more responses to the Universities Deal to be unveiled on 14 May.

What that will actually be, we don’t know.

The review made 47 different recommendations, ranging from creating a future fund of $10 billion to invest in the sector, to changing the funding model for universities and increasing the number of fee-free places.

The government’s main tax policy will form a key part of this year’s budget.

This is slightly different to the original stage 3 tax cut under the Morrison government, which would not have reduced the tax rate for these first two groups.

They would also eliminate the 37 percent bracket and raise the threshold for the top bracket to $200,001.

The new version of Stage 3, which comes into effect on July 1, will see every taxpayer get a reduction.

Someone with a median income of about $73,000 will get $1,504, but exactly how much you get depends on how much you earn:

The budget cost of the policy is estimated to be about the same as the previous iteration of Stage 3: $105.7 billion by 2027–28.

Chalmers said there would also be tax reform beyond the Stage 3 cuts.

“There will be other tax changes,” he told ABC radio.

“In all the budgets we’ve done so far, there’s been modest but meaningful tax reform … people should expect to see more of that on Tuesday.”

Pension on paid parental leave

While it will help tackle the 25 per cent less super that women have on average than men, it won’t matter this year – the policy is due to come into force on 1 July 2025.

As for how much it will cost, we don’t know that either. A figure will be set in the budget on May 14.

On April 4, Albanese touted an existing policy introduced in the 2023-24 budget that gives eligible families up to $500 off their electric bills and eligible small businesses up to $650.

“Our Government understands that for small businesses – as well as Australian families – energy bills remain a source of financial pressure,” he said.

“That’s why the energy bill relief package I agreed with the states and territories has delivered up to $650 in savings for around 1 million small businesses, along with 5 million families.

“And as we put together next month’s budget, small businesses and families will once again be at the center of our thinking.”

But Albanese’s comments suggest the current relief on energy bills could be extended for another year.

Measures to combat domestic violence

Those fleeing violence will be eligible for up to $5,000 in financial support, along with access to safety assessments and referrals to support pathways, from 1 July 2025.

Finance Minister Katie Gallagher, who is also federal minister for women, noted more announcements would be included in the budget, while pointing to the national plan, which was set up in 2022.

“We are committed to the national plan, which sets out our overarching goal to end violence against women and children within a generation,” she said.

“There is already $2.3 billion tied to this plan. We’re making additional investments towards that, you’ll see some of that in the budget.”

One of those additional measures is $1 billion in funding for crisis and transitional housing for women and children fleeing domestic violence, announced Saturday, but Gallagher said Monday that “you’ll see a little more of that in the budget” when it comes to until further notices.

What else we know will be in the budget

There are a number of other measures we know will be part of the federal budget, including: