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THere are three ways civilians can die in the coming war El Fasher, the only major city in Sudan’s Darfur region not yet captured by the Rapid Support Force, and they are already dying in two of them. The first is deprivation: blockade of humanitarian aid has intensified already desperate circumstances. The second is crossfire. Two children and at least one babysitter were killed when a Sudanese armed forces airstrike hit near a pediatric hospital over the weekend, according to Doctors Without Borders.
The third, warns Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale University’s Humanities Research Laboratory, is targeted mass murder. More than 1.5 million people are in the city, many of whom have fled fighting elsewhere. The Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights has concluded that genocide is happening again in Darfur – just two decades after it horrified the world. Human Rights Watch said last week that crimes against humanity were committed by the RSF and allied militias against the ethnic Masalites and other non-Arab populations in and around El Geneina last year, killing thousands. The British Government said the violence shows “all the hallmarks of ethnic cleansing.” There is every reason to fear that El Fasher will see more.
The suffering inflicted on Sudan in just over a year of war is appalling. Army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lieutenant General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo – known as “Hemedti” – of the RSF paramilitaries turned on each other last April. The worst predictions made then are coming true. At least 14,700 people died. Almost 25 million people – more than half the population – need help. More than 8 million people have been displaced. Both sides have committed war crimes.
The RSF’s record is dismal and well documented and they have already destroyed the villages around El Fasher. The SAF also escalated matters. Analysts suspect they see the fight – which they have largely outsourced to local allies – as tying down the RSF and inflicting political damage.
Foreign parties fueled this civil war. The United Arab Emirates supported the RSF, and Iran and Egypt supported General Burhan; Russia seems to be trying to play both sides. Yet there are signs that the UAE may belatedly recognize the reputational cost as diplomatic efforts ramp up.
The UK has a special responsibility given that it leads for Sudan in the Security Council. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, did warned that an attack on El Fasher would be “massacre…disaster upon disaster” and threatened consequences if it happened. The US, UK and others have imposed sanctions on organizations linked to the RSF and SAF.
Pressure is needed at all levels – from the UN Security Council to regional governments engaging with lower-level commanders – to restore the informal ceasefire around El Fashar late last year. The SAF should also be pressured to engage in serious negotiations for a ceasefire and an end to the war, despite General Burhan’s unrealistic assessment of the position. Sudanese NGOs and activists have the right to call for an arms embargo Sudan in general, and a new UN mission to protect civilians, although a more plausible first step might be an agreement for third-party observers in El Fasher. The world’s largest humanitarian crisis has boiled over into widespread indifference and cynicism. This cannot go on. No more time to waste.
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