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1. Compromises
After arriving in Adelaide on Saturday, Li’s first focus will be on panda diplomacyfollowed by attempts to demonstrate the easing of trade barriers.
Wine was one of the Australian export sectors hit hardest when China introduced a series of tariffs and other trade restrictions in 2020, amid tensions sparked by a range of issues, including the Morrison government’s early public calls for a global investigation into the origin of Covid. Li – China’s second-highest-ranking official after President Xi Jinping – is expected to dine at a South Australian winery on Sunday, just three months after Beijing lifted tariffs on Australian wine.
Most of the trade restrictions have now been lifted, but some still remain – including on live lobster and red meat from certain exporters. Anthony Albanese is expected to use Monday’s meeting with Li in Canberra to push for the removal of remaining “trade barriers” – the term now preferred to the previous language of “trade sanctions” or “economic coercion”.
Li will have his own trade and economic wish list during the trip. He is likely to again push for China to enter the regional trade pact known as the CPTPP and argue that Chinese investors should not be unfairly targeted or discriminated against.
2. Human rights and wrongs
The Australian government says it routinely raises human rights and consular issues at high-level meetings with the Chinese government, including over Xinjiang and Tibet.
The convictions were handed down last month of Gordon Ng, a dual citizen of Australia and Hong Kong, and 13 other pro-democracy activists fueled the Australian government’s pre-existing concerns about a crackdown on dissent in the formerly semi-autonomous region. Last week, the Senate Estimates Committee heard that Australian officials had made at least 14 unsuccessful requests for consular access to Ng, with his dual citizenship likely the reason such visits were blocked.
Albanese is also expected to raise the case of detained Australian writer Dr. Yang Hengjun. It will be the first face-to-face opportunity for the prime minister to express concern directly to Li since a Chinese court handed down a suspended death sentence to Yang in February. Albanese told reporters at the time that his government had conveyed to China “our despair, our frustration, but – simply put – our outrage at this verdict”, adding that Yang was “not in good health”.
3. Military maneuvering
Albanese said he would raise two recent cases of “dangerous” and “inappropriate” behavior by the People’s Liberation Army when interacting with Australian Defense Force personnel.
The Australian Government accused a PLA fighter jet of firing rockets in front of an Australian Seahawk helicopter escorting HMAS Hobart in the Yellow Sea on 4 May. In an earlier incident on 14 November 2023, the government complained that sonar pulses from a PLA Navy destroyer endangered Australian divers trying to clear fishing nets in which HMAS Toowoomba was entangled off the coast of Japan.
In the case of the sonar pulse, Chinese authorities accused the Australian government of making “crude and irresponsible accusations against China”, while in the more recent case its foreign ministry accused the Australian helicopter of deliberately flying “at close range” of Chinese airspace in ” provocative move”.
4. Regional and global security
Talks about the military clashes are likely to lead to broader discussions about the regional security environment.
The Australian government is particularly concerned about China’s more assertive actions in the South China Sea, including near the Philippines. He also raised concerns about the PLA’s recent exercises around Taiwan following the self-ruled democracy’s presidential election. Australia’s position is to oppose the use or threat of use of force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, following China’s long-standing goal of “unification”. Albanese and his senior ministers are likely to stress the need for China to act in a way that reassures the region.
For its part, China regularly calls on countries such as Australia not to “interfere” in what it considers its internal affairs. The Chinese government is deeply suspicious of the Aukus nuclear submarine pact and other groupings such as the Quad, viewing them as Australia supporting US-led attempts to curb its growth. It would not be surprising if Li took the opportunity to urge Australia to chart its own course rather than allowing itself to be too closely tied to US strategy.
In global security discussions, Australia is likely to encourage China to leverage Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. The two sides are also likely to discuss their shared concern about the humanitarian consequences of the Israel-Gaza war.
5. A collaborative climate?
The Australian government has repeatedly stated that its approach to China is to “cooperate where we can, disagree when we must and engage in our national interest”.
Climate change appears to be one area where both sides believe there is scope for collaboration and cooperation. After last year’s leaders’ meeting in Beijing, China and Australia pledged to resume dialogue on climate change and energy and begin technical cooperation on soil carbon testing and climate-smart agricultural practices.
Given that climate action will only be effective if deep emissions cuts are made worldwide, this seems like an area where Albanese and Li might be inclined to mark further efforts.
After Li’s meetings in Canberra on Monday – which will include side talks with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton – he is due to travel to Western Australia where he will hold a dialogue with business leaders and members of the Chinese-Australian community.
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